Squasher

Squashing squashed biweekly

•

Fri Mar 27

squashed:

The above graph shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average while Obama has been in office. Since the close of market on innauguration day, it has dropped from 7949.09 to 7924.56 or 24.53 points, which comes out to an average loss of about .377 points per day (compared to an average daily loss of about 1.23 points when Bush was President). Do these numbers mean anything particularly meaningful?
Not really. Well, they do suggest a few things. Anybody talking about how the stock market hates Obama’s broad policy goals is either confused or lying. The recent uptick in the stock market might tempt people to start talking a bit prematurely about recovery. Did the stimulus work? It’s still way too soon to tell.

Keep in mind that your abusing the numbers, Dan. If you had calculated just a little bit earlier, say March 7, you get a loss of -1500ish/40ish = -37.5ish.

It’s extremely unfair to compare Obama’s stock market record favorably to Bush’s since 1) we don’t have nearly enough data 2) Obama would lose on a per-day average for most of his term.

Also don’t forget that the president isn’t the only major player in the stock market, so the correlation wouldn’t mean anything even with full data.

I’ll suggest a few more possibilities besides confused and lying:

1) They said it a few weeks ago when it fit the numbers
2) They are unaware of just how far up it has come
3) They know something about the stock market besides the weekly average and are basing their judgment on this. The stock market is so volatile, especially this year, that judging based on the weekly average is probably not too much better than a die roll.

The above graph shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average while Obama has been in office. Since the close of market on innauguration day, it has dropped from 7949.09 to 7924.56 or 24.53 points, which comes out to an average loss of about .377 points per day (compared to an average daily loss of about 1.23 points when Bush was President). Do these numbers mean anything particularly meaningful?

Not really. Well, they do suggest a few things. Anybody talking about how the stock market hates Obama’s broad policy goals is either confused or lying. The recent uptick in the stock market might tempt people to start talking a bit prematurely about recovery. Did the stimulus work? It’s still way too soon to tell.

Keep in mind that your abusing the numbers, Dan. If you had calculated just a little bit earlier, say March 7, you get a loss of -1500ish/40ish = -37.5ish. It’s extremely unfair to compare Obama’s stock market record favorably to Bush’s since 1) we don’t have nearly enough data 2) Obama would lose on a per-day average for most of his term. Also don’t forget that the president isn’t the only major player in the stock market, so the correlation wouldn’t mean anything even with full data. I’ll suggest a few more possibilities besides confused and lying: 1) They said it a few weeks ago when it fit the numbers 2) They are unaware of just how far up it has come 3) They know something about the stock market besides the weekly average and are basing their judgment on this. The stock market is so volatile, especially this year, that judging based on the weekly average is probably not too much better than a die roll.